The Relationship between Tourism Industry and Economic Growth in India: Evidence from Multivariate Regression Analysis

Bishwajeet Prakash, Vijay Kumar, Rakesh Kumar Gautam

Abstract


Tourism industry of any country is not only related with the economic profit of the country but it is also a way to communicate heritage, cultural, social and environmental values between two nations.  Tourism industry in India contributed 9.6 per cent in total GDP of country in 2016 with the value US $ 71.55 billion and it is third largest sector contributed in foreign exchange earnings. The estimated compound annual growth rate for direct contribution of tourism and hospitality industry to GDP for 2016-17 was 14.05 per cent. As per the report of world travel and tourism council’s economic impact 2017 forecasted contribution of tourism industry to GDP by 2027 is 147.96 billion. In 2016, 8.8 million foreign tourists arrived in India which is forecasted 15.3 million by 2025. The present study is designed to analyze the growth rate of tourism industry in India. The finding of the study suggests that Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEE) from the foreign tourists is significant for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India whereas the impact of Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTA) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India is not significant.



Keywords


Economic Growth, Tourism, Tourist arrivals, Foreign Exchange earnings

References


Bagri. S. C. (2005). Human resource practices in travel and tourism sector, souvenir of the national conference held in Rishikesh 19th-21st March.

2. Bagri, S. C., & Suresh Babu, A. (2009). Critical Analysis of the Existing Scenario of Hospitality Management Education. University News, 47(36).

Balaguer, J., and Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002), ‘Tourism as a long-run growth factor: the Spanish case’, Applied Economics, Vol 34, No 7, pp 877–884.

Benn, H (2006): Growth and poverty reduction – creating more and better jobs in poor countries First Speech on the White Paper by the Secretary of State for International Development, 19th January 2006, London, UK.

Bharadwaj, D. S. (2002). Manpower development for tourism sector in India, tourism in the new millennium, challenges & opportunities. In S.P.Bansal, S. Sushama and C. Mohan (Eds.), Cutting edge research in tourism. Chandigarh: Abhishek Publications, 418-428.

Brau, R., Lanza, A., and Pigliaru, F. (2003), How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing? The Cross-country Evidence, Nota di Lavoro, No 85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy.

Brohan, J (1998): New directions in tourism for third-world development Annals of Tourism Research Vol.23, No.1, pp.48-70

Chan, Y. M. (1993), Forecasting Tourism: A Sine Wave Time Series Regression Approach, Journal of Travel Research, Vol.32, pp 58-60.

Cunado, J., and Perez de Garcia, F. (2006), ‘Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century’, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol 58, pp 153–167.

Dieke, P.U.C. (2004), ‘Tourism in Africa’s economic development: policy implication’, Management Decision, Vol 41, No 3, pp 287–295.

Dritsakis, N. (2004), ‘Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece’, Tourism Economics, Vol 10, No 3, pp 305–316.

Gunduz, L., and Hatemi, A. (2005), ‘Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?’ Applied Economics, Vol 12, pp 499–504.

Jamieson, W et al (2004): Contribution of Tourism to Poverty Alleviation, UN ESCAP, November.

Martin, C.A. and S.F. Witt (1987), Tourism Demand Forecasting Models: Choice of Appropriate Variable to Represent Tourists’ Cost of Living, Tourism Management, Vol.8, No.3, pp 233-246.

O’ Hagan, J.W. and M.J. Harrison (1984), Market Shares of US Tourists in Europe: An Econometric Analysis, Applied Economics, Vol.16, pp 219-226.

Oh, C. (2005), ‘The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy’, Tourism Management, Vol 26, No 1, pp 39–44.

Papadopoulas, S.I. and S.F. Witt (1985), A Marketing Analysis of Foreign Tourism in Greece, in: S.Shaw, L.Sparks and E.Kaynak, (eds.), Marketing in the 1990’s and beyond: Proceedings of Second World Marketing Congress, University of Stirling, Stirling, pp 682-693.

Proenca, S., and Soukiazis, E. (2008), ‘Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels’, Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol 7, No. 1, pp 43–61.

Kim, J.H. (1999), Forecasting Monthly Tourist Departures from Australia, Tourism Economics, Vol.5, pp 277-291.

Kulendran, N. and M.L. King (1997), Forecasting International Quarterly Tourist Flows using Error-Correction and Time-Series Models, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.13, pp 319-327.

Libison.K.B. & K.P. Muraleedharan (2008), “Economic Benefits of Pilgrimage Tourism: A Case Study of Sabarimala Pilgrimage with Special Reference to Pandalam Rural Locality in Kerala (India)”, South Asian Journal of Tourism and Heritage (2008), Vol. 1, No. 1.

Lim, C. and M. McAleer(2001), Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demands to Australia, Discussion Paper No: 532, The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Japan.

Little, J.S. (1980), International Travel in the US Balance of Payments, New England Economic Review (May-June), pp 42-55.

Rosenweig, J.A. (1988), Elasticities of Substitution in Caribbean Tourism, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 29,No.1, pp 89-100.

Sinclair, M.T. (1998): Tourism and economic development. Journal of Development Studies. 34(5), 1-51.

Tosun, C. (1999), ‘An analysis of contributions international inbound tourism to the Turkish economy’, Tourism Economics, Vol 5, pp 217–250.

Wally Mamudu (2001): “Ecotourism and Sustainable Wildlife Management”, paper presented in the conference “Atelier regional- Faune Sauvage et betail” on January 16-19, 2001 in Niger.

Witt, C.A., S.F. Witt and N. Wilson (1994), Forecasting International Tourist Flows, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol.21, pp 612-628.


Full Text: PDF



Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.